Conference play begins Thursday with all 3 schools fighting to rise above the middle of the pack
As Cal State Fullerton, UC Irvine and Long Beach State reach the midpoint of the season, Big West Conference play will begin to separate the contenders from the bottom dwellers.
The outcome of this year was unscripted, as Long Beach was considered a favorite early in the season to hold a top seed in the tournament, but they are finding themselves struggling to win games, 4-10 on the season.
Cal State Fullerton has yet to find their groove with a new head coach, as the team owns a 5-9 record.
UC Irvine has so far had the most success among these three teams, but find themselves barely over the .500 mark at 9-7.
On Thursday, each of these teams will start to face their conference opponents, and losing is not an option. Here’s the Big West outlook for each of these teams the rest of the season:
Cal State Fullerton
A fresh start has turned sour for the Titans, as a new coach Dedrique Taylor has not been able to solve the ongoing problems for Fullerton. The Titans started the season strong, going 3-1 in their first four games, and held a 2-1 season record before the roof collapsed. Fullerton went on a five game losing streak, and managed to win one game in seven contests in almost a month.
The current problems the Titans are facing is their inconsistent starting five. Michael Williams is the only player who is scoring double digits in every regular season game for Fullerton. Alex Harris started the year strong with four straight games of scoring over 14 points. Since missing 4 games with an ankle injury Harris has scored 14 points or more once in seven contests.
Marquis Horne’s production has severely dropped off, as he is averaging just over 5 points a game in his last five. In the beginning of the season, Horne was averaging over 11 points per game.
For Fullerton to have success, they need to find a way to lead at half time. They are a very dominant second half team this year, as they outscore opponents 511-480 in the second frame. In the first half, alone the Titans trail their opponents 500-421.
With the inconsistency in their offense, Fullerton will most likely finish around the 6th or 7th seed in the Big West. Beating Hawaii, UCI, and UC Santa Barbara will be their biggest concern, as two of these three teams have not lost more than five games.
Fullerton should be able to have better success against Long Beach this year, and can easily split the series between Riverside, Davis, and Cal Poly. You can almost expect them to lose both games against Hawaii and Santa Barbara.
By the end of March, CSUF should finish with a 7-9 conference record. Their first matchup is against UC Riverside on Thursday.
UC Irvine
This is the most successful team out of all three this year. They currently sit in third in the Big West in overall record, just in front of Cal State Northridge.
The reason for their success this year is Will Davis, who has hit the 200 point threshold after 16 games. Chris McNealy and Luke Nelson are not far behind; both of them have over 180 points.
One problem the team is facing this year is their amount of turnovers. They average 13.4 per game, and give up almost 3 more turnovers per game than their opponents. This is a marginal defeat, but can prove costly in close matchups, especially when they must face Hawaii or Santa Barbara.
UC Irvine’s shooting in unmatched so far this season, as they are making almost 50% of their field goals. Davis has been phenomenal for the team, as he has made 61% of his field goal attempts. To put this into perspective, Hawaii’s team field goal percentage is about 48%.
This will become the biggest asset for the Irvine come Thursday. Their opponents make about 40% of their shots in field goal range. When they have to play the top teams in the Big West, Irvine could easily put up a fight to win the game. But it also means limiting the amount of turnovers.
By the end of the 16 game stretch, Irvine should be able to have a good grip on a top seed in the tournament. They should finish no worse than 5th barring any upsets from the basement teams. Considering how well the Irvine’s core group of Davis, McNealy and Nelson, Irvine could find a way to split one series with Santa Barbara or Hawaii. I think UCI’s record will be 10-6 in the conference just before the Big West tournament.
Cal State Long Beach
Compared to last season’s success, this has been a disaster for Long Beach. They are dead last in the conference at 4-10, and have yet to find any kind of success this year.
One of the biggest reasons for this is losing four of their six top scorers from the 2012-13 season. It is already taking its effect, especially in their shooting percentages.
Last season, the team finished with a 45% field goal conversion, but this year they are barely hitting the 40% mark. Long Beach is also only making 27% of their 3-point shots this year compared to 34% last season.
Another problem the team is facing is their ability to win on the road. Long Beach is only 1-5 in games on the road, compared to their 3-2 record at home. If you are counting, Long Beach has also yet to win a single game in neutral arenas this year (0-3). Being a good team means being able to win most of your road games, and at least half of the road games you play in.
The addition of UCLA transfer Tyler Lamb has infused some offense into the 49ers, but it won’t be enough to propel them ahead of programs like Hawaii and UC Santa Barbara.
For Long Beach, things will only get progressively worse, as they will start with some of the toughest conference opponents in their next few games. They play the top four teams in the Big West at least once in their first six games. It starts with UCI on Thursday at home.
I expect Long Beach to find themselves in the basement this year, and may miss the playoffs entirely. They should be able to beat Cal Poly at least once, and could find a way to split with Fullerton, Riverside, and Davis. With that in mind, Long Beach will win at least 4 games in the conference, but finish out the season 6-10 in the Big West.
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