Dodgers’ bullpen needs starters to put together consecutive quality games before fatigue becomes focal point
(For Part 1, Click here)
The Los Angeles Dodgers lost to the Colorado Rockies Sunday to finish their 10-game home stand 4-6. One-sixth of the season, or 27 games, is nearing completion. Clearly, Dodgers pitching has shown signs of weakness – as the starters are coming out earlier than in 2013 causing the relievers to have added pressure placed on their arms so early in the 2014 campaign.
LA’s starting pitchers have been erratic, leaving Don Mattingly with little choice but to reach into the bullpen at an alarming rate. A look inside the numbers – focusing on: innings pitched, wins, losses, ERA and games pitched – reveals the Dodgers are blowing up the arms of their relievers. The consequences, of turning to the bullpen so early, will surely be felt as the “dog days of summer” approach, when a fatigued pitching staff can be the downfall of a season.
Comparing 2013’s stats against 2014’s (by multiplying by six as the Dodgers are 1/6th of the way through the season) reveals the starters aren’t pitching enough innings, while the bullpen is hovering at league average in earned-runs. If this pattern continues unabated there will be rougher turbulence ahead as the Dodgers continue their flight toward the postseason.
Mattingly knows the team needs quality innings from the starters in order to keep the bullpen in functioning condition. The Dodgers are averaging 5.8 IP per starter while the bullpen is averaging 3.5 IP per game played in 2014. The Dodgers averaged 6 IP per starter, while the bullpen averaged 3 IP over 155 games in 2013. The difference seems minuscule, .2IP difference for starters and .5IP for the relievers, but when you start to expand the stats out to the end of September – the numbers look a bit gaudy.
If averages continue on this pace (and figuring 6 IP for Tuesday nights game,) the Dodgers starters will pitch 930 innings (979 IP in 2013, 8th in MLB) or seven games less in 2014. The bullpen will go for a hefty 570 IP – 99 more innings pitched than last year. I didn’t expect the bullpen to be stellar this season anyway but asking 11 more games out of them than in 2013 is a bit much.
I realize that adds up to 9.3, or an out more than a typical game. The Dodgers have had six games go past the ninth this season. There are 1,458 possible innings a season if a team plays each contest to the bottom of the ninth. The Dodgers played 1,450 in 2013 but are on pace for about 1,500 in 2014. I doubt they will hit 36 extra inning games, so yes – the law of averages dictates total innings pitched for the team will come down to a more realistic number come September.
All these stats don’t seem to far apart but put this conversation into the contexts of muscle recovery and recuperation.We will continue to monitor these averages every 27 games to see how this works itself out over the course of the entire season. I will come back with a similar story in about a month and we can follow the stats all the way to September 28th.
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